The Anatomy of a Slow Onset Disaster: Why Day Zero was Inevitable (2024)

In arid areas economic growth and thus political stability is firmly linked to water security. When gold was discovered in South Africa, it triggered a National Hydraulic Mission originally designed to pump water uphill, because the Witwatersrand Goldfields were at high altitude, in a grassland receiving insufficient rainfall to sustain trees. A hydraulic miracle occurred, based on human ingenuity, that saw the linking of rivers together. This process was accelerated in 1961 when South Africa achieved independence from Britain, but became a pariah state over its Apartheid policies. The Armed Struggle was born, running in parallel to the Second Hydraulic Mission. These two parallel processes evolved independently, until 1994 when a new constitution was implemented, ending the Armed Struggle. At that moment in time, these two parallel processes intersected, when revolutionary Cadres took control of complex institutional and engineering systems they had no experience of managing. An invisible battlefield emerged where science collided with ideology, and in the fervor of the moment, the latter won. The unintended consequences of the victory of ideology over science meant that the complexity of the South African water supply systems was simply never understood by the revolutionary leadership, who launched a new Paradigm of Redistribution, while ignoring the harsh reality that water is an economic enabler, but is inherently scarce in arid areas. The collapse of the South African water infrastructure was more-or-less guaranteed from the moment the first purges took place. The loss of technically competent people, opened the door to widespread plunder, as sophisticated engineering projects became a feeding trough for the politically connected elite. This slow onset disaster is now in an advanced stage, as the province of Gauteng is unable to meet demands for water directly attributable to the hijacking of engineering programs and the delay of Phase 2 of the Lesotho Highlands Project. This is exacerbated by the collapse of the sewage systems, another artifact of poor governance and oversight by a revolutionary cohort fueled by ideology, and inherently suspicious of the precautionary principles inherent to environmental science. Gauteng is home to over 40% of all citizens, producing over 60% of the GDP, but its 100% dependent on highly engineered water supply systems that are now unable to meet demands. The infrastructure is failing and the results of that process are not yet known, so the Platform for a Water Secure Gauteng (PWSG) has been created to unite all parties in a heroic attempt to prevent total system collapse. The PWSG can only succeed if the Government of National Unity (GNU) holds together, and the structural drivers of the failure are fully comprehended and adequately addressed. This paper is offered in a sincere attempt to assist that process of systemic renewal. Today we see major metropolitan areas, all centers of industrial activity, slowly collapsing because of water supply failures. What started in Cape Town in 2018, has now become a daily reality for Port Elizabeth, Durban, Johannesburg, Pretoria and Ekurhuleni. Day Zero now looms large over the South African economy, and investors and citizens alike are increasingly aware of the risk this brings into their daily lives. Failure is not an option, so now is the time to take a bite of the reality sandwich and truly understand the implications of pushing rivers around as if there are no consequences.

Will South Africa have a Water War

When Cape Town was facing its Day Zero crisis, I was commissioned by a published to write a book on the topic. The publisher insisted that it be framed as a water war, which made me a little uncomfortable. In four months of concerted writing, I produced this document, recently updated. In the subsequent engagement with the publisher, it became evident that they wanted a more sensationalized narrative, which I was unprepared to provide. I therefore withdrew the text rather than compromise my integrity as a scientist. This unpublished text has been used by me as lecture material for MSc students at the Centre for Environmental Management, but beyond that, it has remained obscure. Recently, South Africa was plunged into a new series of water crises. First, the City of Port Elizabeth faced its own Day Zero, severely impacting the economic development potential of a highly industrialized city producing motorcars for the global market. Second, Durban was plunged into crisis as floods ravaged the industrial areas, followed by its own Day Zero that saw the creation of a special task team under the World Bank. Third, the province of Gauteng, the most industrialized of all areas in South Africa, totally dependent on the inflow of water via complex inter-basin-transfers from distant rivers, also faces its own Day Zero. This saw the creation of a Platform for a Water Secure Gauteng (PWSG), also under the leadership of a functionary from the World Bank. Collectively these three issues, covering the entire industrialized capacity of South Africa, are now at great risk. All major metropolitan areas in South Africa have been plunged into water insecurity, the genesis of which explained in this text. It is heavily referenced for the reader wishing to verify the facts mentioned in the narrative. The question is whether this situation can be turned around? What will happen when water security is compromised in the most industrialized areas of what used to be the economic powerhouse of Africa? This places the unpublished text into perspective, so it is offered here as a contribution to the political, financial, policy and technical discourses that are seemingly taking place in a disjointed vacuum. This text makes the case that institutional failure in the South African water sector is the outcome of a raging battle between the values of science that is perceived to be counter revolutionary. It became a clash between reality and ideology - between fact and aspiration - but it remained largely invisible to the general public. This single issue is of national strategic importance, so it deserves to be understood if the South African government is to self-correct. South Africa is indeed likely to experience its own water war, not as a clash between rival armies over a shared resource, but rather as a festering collapse of investor confidence, driving unemployment, eventually triggering a spontaneous uprising that is likely to pose an existential threat to the survival of the state in its current form if left unmanaged.

Part G

How many bones must you bury before you can call yourself an African? This is a diary I have been keeping of issues relevant to South Africa as a country in transition. Part G deals with events from 1987 to 1995 when constitutional reform created the first democracy after a protracted period of Armed Struggle.

South Africa and the drought that exposed a young democracy

Water Policy, 2016

South Africa is a young democracy currently going through a crisis of leadership. The worst drought in recorded history has played out at regional level but against the backdrop of complex political dynamics. The government has lost significant capacity at the technical level, largely the result of political priorities driven by the need to decolonise society and the institutions of higher learning. This has manifest in the water sector as systemic failures of key instrumentation systems, rendering the El Niño event invisible until it hit. This case study of the El Niño event shows that drought management is embedded within a broader political process and is not simply a technical management issue. The Vaal River system sustains 60% of the national economy and 45% of the total population of the country, but water security in this system has been placed at risk because of political dynamics.

From the Luthuli Detachment to Operation Cruiser – Puissance to Pouvoir – The Evolution of Covert Operations in the South African Armed Struggle

Little comparative research has been possible because of the secret nature of covert operations, so the effectiveness of such strategies is often unknown outside of the popular media. This paper gives insight into the evolution of covert operations in South Africa from the 1960's to the advent of democracy in 1994.

Is Water a National Security Risk in South Africa

Nongqai Vol 15, No 10., 2024

South Africa is a water constrained country approaching the limit of its available resources. This has severe implications for social stability, investor confidence, economic development, job creation and national security. This paper gives some perspective on the evolution of thinking in South Africa where factional politics initially created capacity, and then destroyed that capacity in the intelligence services.

Can water governance deepen democracy in South Africa? Towards a new social charter for mining

International Journal of Water Governance, 2013

Part F

This paper deals with events from 1975 to 1986 as they applied to the national security situation in South Africa. This period was dominated by the Carnation Revolution in Portugal, which immediately had an impact on the wars of liberation in Angola and Mozambique. It fundamentally altered the calculus for Rhodesia, and it brought South Africa into the region as an increasingly modern military force during Operation Savanah. It also saw the creation of two structures - the CCB in the SADF and the CDCO in NIS - which both had a major impact in the 1980s and 1990s. From this paper it becomes clear that the national security problem in South Africa was complex, being deeply embedded in Cold War dynamics.

Pollution Water and South Africa's poor

South Africa transitioned to a water constrained economy circa 2002, so in effect water is being recycled from sewage systems back into agriculture and potable use. This paper documents the human health hazards arising from both sewage and mine water effluent, specifically on the poor.

Part E

This is part of my family history from 1911 to 1974, which also covers key events like the launching of the Armed Struggle in South Africa. This period deals with WWII and the implications that had on South African politics. It describes the launch of the SANNC, later to become the ANC.

Plus ça change? Mining in South Africa in the last 30 years – an overview Plus ça change ? L'extraction minière en Afrique du Sud ces 30 dernières années - vue d'ensemble

This article examines the history of South African mining over the last 30 years. It notes the declining contribution of mining to the economy, and a drop in employment levels and labour migration. It considers political, legislative and macroeconomic changes, as well as mine ownership and control. It addresses the question why a democratically elected government,